Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
